GBPUSD, A long-term analysis, A short-term trade

by jennifer on February 16, 2012

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GBP/USD:   Rob picked a hard one this morning, but I’ll do my best!

I’m not interested in buying right now either, even though it’s going up,  and did just complete a little buy Combo Trade. Too late for that now. I can show you where I would be interested in a sell.

DAILY CHART:

1. The key level for me to sell is the inner lower band. I drew a blue line to mark it at 1.5697.
2. Red circle is the area I would like to have a sell trade. Target is just below the lower band (currently) at the 50% Fib retracement.
3. You know RSI is my favorite indicator. I would like to see it peak back below the 50-line at the same time.

4Hour chart:

1. The blue box is a Surprise Box area where price hangs around the 800 SMA. It seems that area inside the box will have some pull on price for awhile.
2. Price tried to get out, but went back inside the box.
3.  I am interested in a sell into the green circled area below that that lower sup/res level at 1.5654.
4. If price goes down there again, it will reload momentum on MACD and hopefully push RSI back below the 50-line. I will sell if that happens.  

PIVOTS: 

1. I agree with Rob about the monthly pivot. I do think price will get there.
2. I highlighted the area in the middle that looks messy. Lots of things to hang it up, so maybe it won’t be a clean shot, but I still think that monthly pivot will get the final word.

PLAN:
1. I will sell at 1.5649, Take Profit 1.5610. Though you could hold for the 50% retracement on the daily chart, (see above).
2. I will manage the trade from the 4Hour chart, and close with a loss if price goes back up over my entry line. (see above).
3. As always, I will move to break even if  I can get to +15 pips.

Good luck! Have a wonderful day!

Jennifer

 

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